Here’s the latest on El Niño as of now.
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Global outlook: El Niño is currently in a neutral-to-warm transition phase, with forecasts indicating a higher probability of development into El Niño sometime between late spring and summer, potentially persisting into fall/winter. This pattern tends to shift weather and climate in many regions, often bringing warmer global temperatures and altered precipitation patterns.[3][4]
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Regional impacts to watch:
- Americas: Expect higher odds of wetter conditions in some tropical and subtropical regions, with potential changes to hurricane and monsoon activity depending on the strength and timing of El Niño.[7][3]
- Asia-Pacific: Increased rainfall in parts of Southeast Asia and the western Pacific, with possible shifts in monsoon timing and intensity.[7]
- Global temperatures: El Niño episodes typically contribute to higher average global temperatures, potentially reinforcing years with elevated heat records.[4]
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Monitoring sources you can follow:
- NOAA Climate.gov ENSO updates and Outlooks for official forecasts and explanations.[1]
- WMO and regional meteorological agencies provide periodic El Niño/La Niña updates and outlooks.[4][7]
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent official outlook from NOAA or WMO and summarize any anticipated regional weather impacts for Fortaleza and Ceará specifically. I can also create a quick chart of ENSO outlook probabilities over the next few seasons.
Sources
A strong El Niño sounds ominous — but one expert offers some answers about what could be ahead for the 2023-2024 season. Forecasters say El Niño, a climate pattern known for warmer ocean temperatures and increased rain and snow, is likely here to stay until early 2024. A massive heat wave is putting nearly 100 million people under intense triple-digit heat in the coming days. Here's how El Niño is contributing to the high temperatures. … HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired the previous...
www.cbsnews.comThe likelihood of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the to world to the long-running La Niña and would likely fuel higher global temperatures. The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). … At this...
wmo.intOn the ENSO Blog's 10th anniversary, El Niño is in its last weeks and a transition to neutral conditions imminent. Our seasoned blogger discusses the outlook for later this year, and looks back at some of the global impacts of this El Niño.
www.climate.govLatest news on El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern, which significantly alters global atmospheric circulation, affecting temperature
www.newsnow.co.ukThe WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.More on El Niño / La Niña Monitoring and...
wmo.intA deep pool of cool water that had been lurking beneath the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific in April began to emerge at the surface in May 2016.
www.climate.govClimate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comEl Niño and La NiñaLatest status (March 2026) In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose and remained near normal
www.hko.gov.hk